The purpose of the project is to improve and validate newly developed models for simulation and prediction of wind power fluctuations, by integrating the tools with meteorological tools for wind resource assessment and the output of mesoscale numerical weather prediction models. The wind power fluctuation models are developed to provide wind power input time series to planning and operation tools for power systems with large scale wind power. The integration with meteorological tools will improve the credibility of the wind power fluctuation models, and also provide an integrated planning environment where wind resources and wind power fluctuations can be assessed based on a shared and consistent set of input data.
The existing power fluctuation models are either purely statistical or integrated with regional climate models with very limited resolution, and therefore these models have difficulties reproducing powerful events such as storms at the actual historical time and place. Mesoscale prediction models can reproduce such historical events much more accurately in time and place, and thus reduce the uncertainties due to the stochastic components in the power fluctuation models.
Since the overall purpose is to improve the credibility of the models, validation will play a major role in the project. Historical wind power and wind speed time series will be applied for the validation. For this purpose, a combination of data from Energinet.dk, energy companies and Risø DTU will be used. Energinet.dk will supply wind power time series for the two regions Denmark West and Denmark East, and possibly in transmission system feedin points. Energy companies will together with Risø data provide wind speed time series at a number of locations onshore and offshore.